Projected drought conditions in the 2060s. Conditions of -4 (dark red) or worse represent dust-bowl creation. "Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20-50 years."

Aiguo Dai, "Drought under Global Warming: A Review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2 (2011): 45-65 [doi: 10.1002/wcc.81].