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The Discovery of Global Warming February 2011
The Modern Temperature Trend Tracking the world's average temperature from the late 19th century, people in the 1930s realized there had been a pronounced warming trend. During the 1960s, weather experts found that over the past couple of decades the trend had shifted to cooling. With a new awareness that climate could change in serious ways, in the early 1970s some scientists predicted a continued gradual cooling, perhaps a phase of a long natural cycle or perhaps caused by human pollution of the atmosphere with smog and dust. Others insisted that the effects of such pollution were temporary, and humanity's emission of greenhouse gases would bring warming over the long run. All of them agreed that their knowledge was primitive and any prediction was guesswork. But understanding of the climate system was advancing swiftly. The view that warming must dominate won out in the late 1970s as it became clear that the cooling spell (mainly a Northern Hemisphere effect) had indeed been a temporary distraction. When the rise continued into the 21st century, penetrating even into the ocean depths, scientists recognized that it signaled a profound change in the climate system. Nothing like it had been seen for centuries, and probably not for millennia. The specific pattern of changes, revealed in objects ranging from ship logs to ice caps to tree rings, closely matched the predicted effects of greenhouse gas emissions. For much more on the history and practice of recording temperatures, see Paul Edwards, A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2010).
| Subsections: Hints of Warming (1930s -1950s) - Warming or Cooling? (1960s-1974) - Warming Resumed (1975-1987) - Controversy (1988-1990s) - Fingerprints (1990s-2000s) - The Hockey Stick and Beyond
"The subject... is a vast one, and only too easily submerged in an ocean of repelling statistics, unless firm measures are taken to reduce the mass of data into a form which eliminates distracting or irrelevant detail..." — G.S. Callendar(1)
If you had a certain type of mind, temperature statistics could be more absorbing than a book of crossword puzzles. Ever since the invention of the thermometer, some amateur and professional scientists had recorded the temperature wherever they happened to be living or visiting. Government weather services began to record measurements more systematically during the 19th century. By the 1930s, observers had accumulated millions of numbers for temperatures at stations around the world. It was an endlessly challenging task to weed out the unreliable data, average the rest in clever combinations, and compare the results for each particujlar region with other weather features such as droughts. Many of the players in this game pursued a hope of discovering cycles of weather that could lead to predictions. Perhaps, for example, one could correlate rainfall trends with the eleven-year sunspot cycle. | - LINKS - More discussion in <=>Solar variation
Hints of Warming (1930s-1950s) TOP OF PAGE |
Adding interest to the game was a suspicion that temperatures had generally increased since the late 19th century — at least in eastern North America and western Europe, the only parts of the world where reliable measurements went back so far.(2) In the 1930s, the press began to call attention to numerous anecdotes of above-normal temperatures. The head of the U.S. Weather Bureau's Division of Climate and Crop Weather responded in 1934. "With 'Grand-Dad' insisting that the winters were colder and the snows deeper when he was a lad," he said, "...it was decided to make a rather exhaustive study of the question." Averaging results from many stations in the eastern United States and some scattered locations elsewhere around the world, the weather services found that "Grand-Dad" was right: since 1865 average temperatures had risen several degrees Fahrenheit (°F) in most regions. Experts thought this was simply one phase of a cycle of rising and falling temperatures that probably ambled along for centuries. As one scientist explained, when he spoke of the current "climate change" he did not mean any permanent shift, but a long-term cyclical change "like all other climate fluctuations."(3) | <=>Public opinion = Milestone
It may have been the press reports of warming that stimulated an English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, to take up climate study as an amateur enthusiast. He undertook a thorough and systematic effort to look for historical changes in the average temperature of the entire planet. One 19th-century German had already made an attempt at this, seeking a connection with sunspot cycles. Otherwise, if anyone else had thought about it, they had probably been discouraged by the scattered and irregular character of the weather records, plus the common assumption that the average climate scarcely changed over the span of a century. But meteorologists around the world had meticulously compiled weather records, and Callendar drew upon that massive international effort. After countless hours of sorting out data and penciling sums, he announced that the mean global temperature had definitely risen between 1890 and 1935, by close to half a degree Celsius (0.5°C, equal to 0.9°F).(4) | Callendar's warming CLICK FOR FULL IMAGE =>CO2 greenhouse
Callendar's statistics gave him confidence to push ahead with another and more audacious claim. Reviving an old theory that human emissions of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) from burning fuel could cause a "greenhouse effect," Callendar said this was the cause of the warming. (For the details of the theory, click on the link in the righthand column from the essay on Simple models of climate. For scientists' views on the theory in Callendar's day, click on the link higher up to the essay on the CO2 greenhouse effect.) | <=Simple models
It all sounded dubious to most meteorologists. Temperature data were such a mess of random fluctuations that with enough manipulation you could derive all sorts of spurious trends. Taking a broader look, experts believed that climate was comfortably uniform. "There is no scientific reason to believe that our climate will change radically in the next few decades," the highly respected climatologist Helmut Landsberg explained in 1946. "Good and poor years will occur with approximately the same frequency as heretofore."(5) If during some decades in some region there was an unmistakable climate change, the change must be just part of some local cycle, and in due time the climate of the region would revert to its average. | <=Simple models
(By the end of the 20th century, scientists were able to check Callendar's figures. They had done far more extensive and sophisticated analysis of the weather records, confirmed by "proxy" data such as studies of tree rings and measurements of old temperatures that lingered in deep boreholes. The data showed that the world had in fact been warming from the mid 19th century up to about 1940, but it was caused by natural fluctuations. As it happened, much of the warming had been in the relatively small patch of the planet that contained the United States and Europe — and thus contained the great majority of scientists and weather records. If not for this accident, people would probably have paid little attention to the idea of global warming for another generation. That would have severely delayed our understanding of what we face.) | <=>CO2 greenhouse
During the 1940s only a few people looked into the question of warming. A prominent example was the Swedish scientist Hans Ahlmann, who voiced concern about the strong warming seen in some northern regions since early in the century. But in 1952, he reported that northern temperatures had begun to fall again since around 1940.(6) The argument for warming caused by CO2 emissions, another eminent climatologist wrote in 1949, "has rather broken down in the last few years" when temperatures in some regions fell.(7) In any case (as yet another authority remarked), compared with the vast slow swings of ice ages, "the recent oscillations of climate have been relatively small."(8) |
If the North Atlantic region was no longer warming, through the 1940s and 1950s it remained balmy in comparison with earlier decades. People were beginning to doubt the assumption of climate stability. Several scientists published analyses of weather records that confirmed Callendar's finding of an overall rise since the 1880s.(9) An example was a careful study of U.S. Weather Bureau data by Landsberg, who was now the Bureau's chief climatologist. The results persuaded him to abandon his belief that the climate was unchanging. He found an undeniable and significant warming in the first half of the century, especially in more northern latitudes. He thought it might be due either to variations in the Sun's energy or to the rise of CO2.(10) Others pitched in with reports of effects plain enough to persuade attentive members of the public. Ahlmann for one announced that glaciers were retreating, crops were growing farther north, and the like.(11) Another striking example was a report that in the Arctic "the ice is thinner at the present than ever before in historic times;" before long we might even see an open polar sea.(12) Such high-latitude effects were exactly what simple models suggested would result from the greenhouse effect warming of increased CO2. | =>Public opinion =>Simple models =>Aerosols =>Chaos theory
"Our attitude to climatic 'normals' must clearly change," wrote the respected climate historian Hubert H. Lamb in 1959. Recent decades could not be called normal by any standard of the past, and he saw no reason to expect the next decades would be "normal" either. Actually, since the 1930s the temperatures in his own homeland, Britain, had been heading down, but Lamb would not speculate whether that was the start of a cyclical downtrend. It could be "merely another wobble" in one region. Lamb's main point, reinforced by his scholarly studies of weather reports clear back to medieval times, was that regional climate change could be serious and long-lasting.(13) Most meteorologists nevertheless stuck to their belief that the only changes to be expected were moderate swings in one part of the world or another, with a fairly prompt return to the long-term average. If there was almost a consensus that for the time being there was a world-wide tendency to warming, the agreement was fragile. | <=>Climatologists H.H. Lamb
Warming or Cooling? (1960s-1974) TOP OF PAGE |
In January 1961, on a snowy and unusually cold day in New York City, J. Murray Mitchell, Jr. of the U.S. Weather Bureau's Office of Climatology told a meeting of meteorologists that the world's temperature was falling. Independently of Callendar (who had meanwhile been updating and improving his own global temperature history), Mitchell had trudged through all the exacting calculations, working out average temperatures for most of the globe, and got plausible results. He confirmed that global temperatures had risen until about 1940. But since then, he reported, temperatures had been falling. There was so much random variation from place to place and from year to year that the reversal to cooling had only now become unambiguous.(14*) | =>Solar variation
Acknowledging that the increasing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere should give a tendency for warming, Mitchell tentatively suggested that smoke from recent volcanic eruptions and perhaps cyclical changes in the Sun might partly account for the reversal. (Later studies confirmed that volcanoes and solar changes probably did have some cooling effect around that time, along with a natural long-term cycle of Pacific Ocean weather.) But he rightly held that "such theories appear to be insufficient to account for the recent cooling," and he could only conclude that the downturn was "a curious enigma." He suspected the cooling might be part of a natural "rhythm," a cycle lasting 80 years or so.(15) The veteran science correspondent Walter Sullivan was at the meeting, and he reported in the New York Times (January 25 and 30, 1961) that after days of discussion the meteorologists generally agreed on the existence of the cooling trend, but could not agree on a cause for this or any other climate change. "Many schools of thought were represented... and, while the debate remained good-humored, there was energetic dueling with scientific facts." The confused state of climate science was a public embarrassment. | =>Public opinion =>CO2 greenhouse =>Simple models = Milestone
Through the 1960s and into the 1970s, the average global temperature remained relatively cool. Western Europe in particular suffered some of the coldest winters on record. (Studies in later decades found that a quasi-regular long-term weather cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean had moved into a phase in the 1960s that encouraged Arctic winds to move southward there.)(16) People (including scientists) will always give special attention to the weather that they see when they walk out their doors, and what they saw made them doubt that global warming was at hand. In the early 1970s, wherever climate experts got together they debated whether the world was due to get warmer or cooler. Callendar found the turn worrisome, and contacted climate experts to discuss it.(17) Landsberg returned to his earlier view that the climate was probably showing only transient fluctuations, not a rising trend. While pollution and CO2 might be altering the climate in limited regions, he wrote, "on the global scale natural forces still prevail." He added, however, that "this should not lead to complacency" about the risk of global changes in the distant future.(18) | temperature hump =>Aerosols
One source of confusion was increasingly debated. Weather watchers had long recognized that the central parts of cities were distinctly warmer than the surrounding countryside. In urban areas the absorption of solar energy by smog, black roads and roofs, along with direct outpouring of heat from furnaces and other energy sources, created an "urban heat island" effect. This was the most striking of all human modifications of local climates. It could be snowing in the suburbs while raining downtown.(19) Some people pushed ahead to suggest that as human civilization used ever more energy, in a century or so the direct output of heat could be great enough to disturb the entire global climate.(20) If so, that would not happen soon, and for the moment the main consequences were statistical. |
Some experts began to ask whether the warming reported for the decades before 1940 had been an illusion. Most temperature measurements came from built-up areas. As the cities grew, so did their local heating, which might have given a spurious impression of global warming.(21*) Callendar and others replied that they were well aware of urban effects, and took them fully into account in their calculations. Mitchell in particular agreed that population growth could explain the "record high" temperatures often reported in American cities — but it could not explain the warming of remote Arctic regions.(22*) Yet the statistical difficulties were so complex that the global warming up to 1940 remained in doubt. Some skeptics continued to argue that the warming was a mere illusion caused by urbanization. |
While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the 1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate was on the move, and in no small way. The reassuring assumption of a stable "normal" climate was rarely heard now. In the early 1970s, a series of ruinous droughts and other exceptionally bad spells of weather in various parts of the world provoked warnings that world food stocks might run out. Fears increased that somehow humanity was at fault for the bad weather — if we were not causing global warming with greenhouse gases, then perhaps we were cooling the globe with our smoke and smog. Responding to public anxieties, in 1973 the Japan Meteorological Agency sent a questionnaire to meteorological services around the world. They found no consensus. Most agencies reported that they saw no clear climate trend, but several (including the Japanese themselves) noted a recent cooling in many regions. Many experts thought it likely that the world had entered a long-term cool spell.(23) | <=Public opinion <=Aerosols
Public pressure was urging scientists to declare where the climate was going. But they could not do so without knowing what caused climate changes. Haze in the air from volcanoes might explain some cooling, but not as much as was observed. A few experts worried that pollution from human sources, such as dust from overgrazed lands and haze from factories, was beginning to shade and cool the planet's surface. But most experts doubted we were putting out enough air pollution to seriously affect global climate. A more acceptable explanation was a traditional one: the Earth was responding to long-term fluctuations in the Sun's output of energy.(24) | <=Solar variation
An alternative explanation was found in the "Milankovitch" cycles, tens of thousands of years long, that astronomers calculated for minor variations in the Earth's orbit. These variations brought cyclical changes in the amount of sunlight reaching a given latitude on Earth. In 1966, a leading climate expert analyzed the cycles and predicted that we were starting on the descent into a new ice age.(25) In the early 1970s, a variety of measurements pinned down the nature and timing of the cycles as actually reflected in past climate shifts. Projecting the cycles forward strengthened the prediction. A gradual cooling seemed to be astronomically scheduled over the next few thousand years. Later and better calculations would make that tens of thousands of years, but at the time a few people speculated that we might even see substantial natural cooling within centuries.(26) Unless, that is, something intervened. | <=Climate cycles <=Climate cycles
Warming Resumed (1975-1987) TOP OF PAGE |
It scarcely mattered what the Milankovitch orbital changes might do, wrote Murray Mitchell in 1972, since "man's intervention... would if anything tend to prolong the present interglacial." Human industry would prevent an advance of the ice by blanketing the Earth with CO2. A panel of top experts convened by the National Academy of Sciences in 1975 tentatively agreed with Mitchell. True, in recent years the temperature had been dropping (perhaps as part of some unknown "longer-period climatic oscillation"). And industrial haze might also have a cooling effect, perhaps reinforcing the natural long-term trend toward a new ice age. Nevertheless, they thought CO2 "could conceivably" bring half a degree of warming by the end of the century.(27) The outspoken geochemist and oceanographer Wallace Broecker went farther. He suspected that there was indeed a natural cycle responsible for the cooling in recent decades, perhaps originating in cyclical changes on the Sun. If so, it was only temporarily canceling the greenhouse warming. Within a few decades that would climb past any natural cycle. He asked, "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?"(28*) | <=Solar variation =>Public opinion
Meanwhile in 1975, two New Zealand scientists reported that while the Northern Hemisphere had been cooling over the past thirty years, their own region, and probably other parts of the Southern Hemisphere, had been warming.(29) There were too few weather stations in the vast unvisited southern oceans to be certain, but other studies tended to confirm it. The cooling since around 1940 had been observed mainly in northern latitudes. Perhaps cooling from industrial haze counteracted the greenhouse warming there? After all, the Northern Hemisphere was home to most of the world's industry. It was also home to most of the world's population, and as usual, people had been most impressed by the weather where they lived.(30*) | =>Aerosols
The tendency of some scientists in the early 1970s to suspect that the world was cooling now collapsed. Science journalists reported that climate scientists were openly divided, and those who expected warming were increasingly numerous. A good example is Hubert Lamb, the historian of climate who in the 1950s had called attention to climate changes without attempting to predict them. Generalizing from the unusually good historical records in his native England, Lamb had depicted a globally warm "Medieval Climatic Optimum" followed in the early modern period by a "Little Ice Age." During the chilly 1960s he was persuaded by the studies of natural cycles that a new ice age was likely to arrive over thousands of years. But after the hot English summer of 1976 he joined the emerging viewpoint that human greenhouse gas emissions would "become dominant over the natural climate fluctuations by about A.D. 2000."(31) | =>Public opinion
In an attempt to force scientists to agree on a useful answer, in 1977 the U.S. Department of Defense persuaded two dozen of the world's top climate experts to respond to a complicated survey. Their main conclusion was that scientific knowledge was meager and all predictions were unreliable. The panel was nearly equally divided among three opinions: some thought further cooling was likely, others suspected that moderate greenhouse warming would begin fairly soon, and most of the rest expected the climate would stay about the same at least for the next couple of decades. Only a few thought it probable that there would be considerable global warming by the year 2000.(31a) | =>Public opinion
Government officials and scientists wanted more definite statements on what was happening to the weather. Thousands of stations around the world were turning out daily numbers, but these represented many different standards and degrees of reliability — a disorderly, almost indigestible mess. Just storing the records was a formidable challenge. Already in 1966, "From storage rooms to hallways, punch card file cabinets containing the nation’s archive of climate data filled every conceivable space at the National Weather Records Center (NWRC)... There was concern that the NWRC building was in imminent danger of a structural collapse." Although computer memory storage technology improved with tremendous speed, the ever-increasing volume of data kept pace.(31b) |
Around 1980 two groups undertook to work through the mass of numbers in all their grubby details, rejecting sets of uncertain data and tidying up the rest. To contrive an entirely fictional example, suppose in the 1910s there were only eight stations measuring temperatures across a million square miles of the Canadian Arctic, and six of them were in the southern half of the territory. How do you combine the numbers to get an average for that entire segment of the globe? If one of the stations was moved in 1915 from a riverbank to a higher point that was usually colder, how do you adjust? What if one of the stations gave inconsistent results in the winter, and you suspect that the fellow stationed there didn't care to go out to read the thermometer on really cold days, but made up the numbers? The final values for an average temperature in a region resulted from countless difficult decisions. |
One of the groups that undertook the task was in New York, funded by NASA and led by James Hansen. They understood that the work by Mitchell and others mainly described the Northern Hemisphere, since that was where the great majority of reliable observations lay. Sorting through the more limited temperature observations from the other half of the world, they got reasonable averages by applying the same mathematical methods that they had used to get average numbers in their computer models of climate. (After all, Hansen remarked, when he studied other planets he might judge the entire planet by the single station where a probe had landed.) In 1981, the group reported that "the common misconception that the world is cooling is based on Northern Hemisphere experience to 1970." Just around the time that meteorologists had noticed the cooling trend, such as it was, it had apparently reversed. From a low point in the mid 1960s, by 1980 the world had warmed some 0.2°C.(32) |
Hansen's group looked into the causes of the fluctuations, and they got a rather good match for the temperature record using volcanic eruptions plus solar variations. Greenhouse warming by CO2 had not been a major factor (at least, not yet). More sophisticated analyses in the 1990s would eventually confirm these findings. From the 1940s to the early 1960s, the Northern Hemisphere had indeed cooled while temperatures had held roughly steady in the south. Some of the change certainly came from natural variations, probably including changes in the Sun's output and a modest spate of volcanic eruptions. More significantly, a sharp increase in haze from pollution such as sulfate aerosol particles had probably helped to temporarily cool the industrialized Northern Hemisphere (it was hard to be sure, since nobody had been measuring global pollution back then). After the 1960s, with pollution growing less rapidly while CO2 continued to accumulate in the air, warming resumed in both hemispheres.(32a) | <=Aerosols
The temporary northern cooling had been bad luck for climate science. By feeding skepticism about the greenhouse effect, while provoking a few scientists (and rather more journalists) to speculate publicly about the coming of a new ice age, the cool spell gave the field a reputation for fecklessness that it would not soon live down. | =>Public opinion
So long as global pollution from smoke, smog and dust was increasing, its cooling effects would hold back some of the temperature rise. Furthermore, as a few scientists pointed out, the upper layer of the oceans must have been absorbing heat. This too was hiding the buildup of heat energy trapped by greenhouse gases in the air. For only ten percent of the heat added through the greenhouse effect went into heating up the atmosphere; nearly all the rest quickly sank into the oceans. However, Hansen's group and others calculated that these effects could delay atmospheric warming by no more than a few decades. His group boldly predicted that considering how fast CO2 was accumulating, by the end of the 20th century "carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climatic variability." An increasing number of other scientists using different calculations were coming to the same conclusion — the warming would show itself clearly sometime around 2000. (A few scientists had already said as much as far back as the 1950s.)(33*) | <=>The oceans =>Government <=>Solar variation = Milestone
The second important group analyzing global temperatures was the British government's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, founded by Lamb in 1971 and now led by Tom Wigley. Help in assembling data and funding came from American scientists and agencies. The British results agreed overall with the NASA group's findings — the world was getting warmer. In 1982, East Anglia confirmed that the cooling that began in the 1940s had turned around by the early 1970s. 1981 was the warmest year in a record that stretched back a century.(34*) Returning to old records, in 1986 the group produced the first truly solid and comprehensive global analysis of average surface temperatures, including the vast ocean regions, which most earlier studies had neglected. They confirmed that there had been considerable warming from the late 19th century up to 1940, followed by some regional cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. Global conditions had been roughly level until the mid 1970s. Then the warming had resumed with a vengeance. The warmest three years in the entire 134-year record had all occurred in the 1980s.(35*) | Tom Wigley (r.) with a later director of the CRU, Phil Jones (l.) in Villach, 1985. (photoshopped) = Milestone =>International =>CO2 greenhouse =>Public opinion =>Simple models
Convincing confirmation came from Hansen and a collaborator. They too analyzed records going back a century, using quite different methods from the British, and came up with substantially the same results. It was true: an unprecedented warming was underway, at least 0.5°C since the late 19th century.(36) |
In such publications, the few pages of text and numbers were the visible tip of a prodigious unseen volume of work. Many thousands of people in many countries had spent most of their working lives carefully measuring the weather. Thousands more had devoted themselves to organizing and administering the programs, improving the instruments, standardizing the data, and maintaining the records in archives. In geophysics not much came easily. One simple sentence (like "last year was the warmest year on record") might be the distillation of the labors of a multi-generational global community. And it still had to be interpreted.(36a) | <=International
Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record." Like Hansen and some other scientists, he expected that the signal would emerge clearly around the end of the century, but not earlier.(37) |
Global temperature 1850-2008 Average annual surface temperature, based on measurements by meteorological stations, ships and satellites, as reported independently by three different groups: NOAA (NCDC) and NASA (GISS) in the US, and the combined Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in the UK (HadCRUT3). Source: World Meteorological Organization.
| The NASA global temperature data, separated into Northern and Southern Hemisphere curves. Note the greater variation in the North. (Warming was especially pronounced in the Arctic, as predicted.) For latest figures see the NASA-GISS site
Controversy (1988-1990s) TOP OF PAGE |
Knowledge of the global temperature record was becoming so important (and to some, controversial) that the work by the groups in New York and East Anglia no longer seemed enough. A new major effort to track the trends was getting underway at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. The Center had been established in 1951 as the National Weather Records Center, with the task of organizing the data that the Weather Bureau and military services had accumulated since the 1940s. The staff had assembled the world's largest collection of historical weather records. A team led by Thomas Karl began to tediously review the statistics for the world and especially the United States. Making their own decisions about how to combine data, they got results that inevitably differed in minor details from what the other groups reported. But there was no disagreement about the recent general trend. (In 2006 the Japan Meteorological Agency would provide yet a fourth independent analysis, confirming the others.) |
Each of the three groups began to issue annual updates, which the press reported prominently. When all the figures were in for 1988, the year proved to be a record-breaker (the 1980s now included the four warmest years since global measurements began). But in the early 1990s, average global temperatures dipped. Most experts figured the cause was the huge 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, whose emissions dimmed sunlight around the world. After rains washed out the volcanic aerosols, the temperature rise resumed. 1995 was the warmest year on record, but 1997 topped it. 1998 beat that in turn by a large margin. Of course these were global averages of trends that varied from one region to another. The citizens of the United States, and in particular residents of the East Coast, had not felt the degree of warming that came in some other parts of the world — if they had, the politics of the matter might have been different. But looking at the world as a whole, in the late 1990s the great majority of experts at last agreed. Yes, a serious warming trend was underway.(38*) | =>Public opinion <=>Aerosols = Milestone =>Public opinion
This consensus was sharply attacked by a few scientists. Some pulled out the old argument that the advance of urbanization was biasing temperature readings. In fact, around 1990 meticulous re-analysis of old records had squeezed out the urban heat-island bias to the satisfaction of all but the most stubborn critics. Moreover, long-term warming trends showed up in various kinds of data measured far from cities — in particular, over the oceans. The global warming trend was no statistical error. Meanwhile, in urban areas whatever global warming the greenhouse effect might be causing did get a strong addition of heat, and the combination would significantly raise the mortality from heat waves.(39*) |
With the urbanization argument discredited, the skeptics turned to measurements by satellites that monitored the Earth. Since 1979, when the first of these satellites was launched, they had provided the first truly comprehensive set of global temperature data. The instruments did not measure temperatures on the surface, but at middle heights in the atmosphere. At these levels, analysis of the data indicated, there had been no rise of temperature, but instead a slight cooling. The satellites were designed for observing daily weather fluctuations, not the average that represented climate, and it took an extraordinarily complex analysis to get numbers that showed long-term changes. The analysis turned out to have pitfalls.What began as a normal controversy among scientists about the best way to analyze data became politicized, as if this one set of observations could prove or disprove that the planet was warming.(40) | =>Public opinion
In an attempt to settle the controversy, a panel of the National Academy of Sciences conducted a full-scale review in 1999. The panel concluded that the satellites seemed reliable (balloon measurements, although far less comprehensive, also failed to find warming in mid-atmosphere). The satellite instruments simply were not designed to see the warming that was indeed taking place at the surface. |
The measurements indicating that middle layers of the atmosphere had not noticeably warmed were embarrassing to the scientists who were constructing computer models of climate, for their models predicted significant warming there. They suspected the discrepancy could be explained by temporary effects — volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo, or perhaps the chemical pollution that was depleting the ozone layer? While the skeptics persisted, most scientists believed that although the computer models were surely imperfect, the satellite data analysis was too ambiguous to pose a serious challenge to the consensus that global warming was underway. | = Milestone
(This hunch was confirmed in 2004 when meticulous analysis of both satellite and balloon observations turned up systematic errors. The mid levels had in fact been warming. It was one of several cases where computer modelers had been unable to tweak their models until they matched data, not because the models were bad but because the observations were wrong. To be precise, the raw data were fine, but numbers are meaningless until they are processed; it was the complex analysis of the data that had gone astray. "This is the answer — I wish we had recognized it ourselves," said the chair of the 1999 Academy survey.In the public sphere, deniers of global warming continued to cite the satellites and other erroneous data; once an idea gets on the internet it can never be removed from circulation.)(41*) | =>Models (GCMs)
By the late 1990s, many types of evidence showed a general warming at ground level. For example, the Northern Hemisphere spring was coming on average a week earlier than in the 1970s. This was confirmed by such diverse measures as earlier dates for bud-break in European botanical gardens, and a decline of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the spring as measured in satellite pictures. Turning to a more fundamental indicator, the temperature of the upper layers of the oceans — where most of the heat entering the climate system was stored — again a serious rise was found in recent decades.(42*) (Link from below) The 1990s were unquestionably the warmest decade since thermometers came into common use, and the trend was accelerating. | =>Simple models <=The oceans
Fingerprints (1990s-2000s) TOP OF PAGE |
Most climate scientists now took it for granted that greenhouse gases were the cause of the global warming, but critics pointed out that other things might be at work. After all, the greenhouse effect could not have been responsible for much of the warming that had come between the 1890s and 1940, when industrial emissions had still been modest.Announcements that a given year was the warmest on record, when the record had started during the 19th-century cold spell, might not mean as much as people supposed. The warming up to 1940 (and the dip that followed until the 1970s) might have been caused by variations in the Sun's radiation or by random volcanic eruptions. Another influence was decades-long fluctuations in the atmosphere-ocean systems of the North Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic regions, which drove gradual variations in regional weather patterns; these quasi-cyclical fluctuations had been suspected since the 1920s, but only started to become clear in the late 1990s. Until all the possible influences were sorted out, the cause of the warming since 1970 would remain controversial. | <=The oceans
However, there were "fingerprints" (or a “signature”) that pointed directly to greenhouse warming. One measure was the difference of temperature between night and day. Tyndall had pointed out more than a century back that basic physics declared that the greenhouse effect would act most effectively at night, as the gases impeded radiation from escaping into space. Statistics did show that it was especially at night that the world was warmer. Overall, minimum temperatures were rising three times faster than maximum temperatures (bad news for farmers, since warm nights hurt crops threatened by drought).(42a) | <=Simple models
No less convincing, Arrhenius at the turn of the century, and everyone since, had calculated that the Arctic would warm more than other parts of the globee, as the melting of snow and ice exposed dark soil and water. (This effect would not be expected in Antarctica, with its colossal year-round ice cover, and in fact warming was not seen there — except around the coasts and on the long peninsula that projected beyond the ice sheet.) Arctic warming was indeed glaringly obvious to scientists as they watched trees take over mountain meadows in Sweden and the Arctic Ocean's ice pack grow ever thinner. Alaskans and Siberians didn't need statistics to tell them the weather was changing, when they saw buildings sag as the permafrost that supported them melted. | Ecosystem changes <=>Public opinion
A team of computer modelers at the Lawrence Livermore Lab in California, led by Benjamin Santer, predicted that greenhouse gases would cause a particular geographical pattern of temperature change. It was different from what might be caused by other external influences, such as solar variations. The maps of observed changes did in fact bear a rough resemblance to the computers' greenhouse-effect maps. "It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities," the researchers concluded, "although many uncertainties remain."(43) Even before Santer's finding was published, it impressed the community of climate scientists. An important 1995 report by the world's leading experts (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) offered the "fingerprint" as evidence that greenhouse warming was probably underway. By 2006, when the warming had progressed considerably farther and the computer models were much improved, their judgment was confirmed. A thorough analysis concluded that there was scarcely a 5% chance that anything but humans had brought the pattern of changes observed in many regions of the world.(43a) | Ben Santer =>Models (GCMs) <=>International <=Solar variation
Meanwhile a variety of new evidence suggested that the recent warming was exceptional even if one looked back many centuries — another unambiguous fingerprint of human influence. Beginning in the 1960s, a few historians and meteorologists had labored to discover variations of climate by digging through historical records of events like freezes and storms. For example, had the disastrous harvest of 1788 helped spark the French Revolution? Scholars found it difficult to derive an accurate picture, let alone quantitative data, from old manuscripts. Increasingly laborious projects hacked away at the problem.(43b) As one example among many, by 2004 an international team had analyzed hundreds of thousands of weather observations recorded in 18th and 19th century ships' logs in a dozen languages. Whaling ships in particular might have the only record for vast stretches of the planet. Analyzing old records was tricky — for example, ocean temperatures measured with a thermometer in a bucket of sea water had to be adjusted for the cooling that took place as the bucket was hauled aboard. It was thus necessary to dig out just how temperatures had been taken. The effort paid off in 2008 when a group reported that a switch of methods in 1945 had created a spurious drop in ocean temperature readings, exaggerating the global temperature dip of the 1950s.(44) The labor of reconciling different types of measurements seemed endless, but the magnitude of the errors was gradually beaten down. |
For the distant past, tree rings in fossil wood were the most widely used measure — and therefore the most controversial. As early as the 1920s, a few scientists had used rings in ancient logs as a measure of past climates, claiming that the width of a ring varied with a season's rainfall. The studies were attacked as unreliable until the 1960s, when new research showed that the rings did track rainfall in dry regions, but elsewhere they varied according to other factors. In particular, temperature was the crucial factor for certain trees at high altitudes and high latitudes. For example, the venerable bristlecone pines of California survive for millenia on their bleak mountaintops like taoistic recluses in a Chinese painting, growing imperceptibly in close harmony with the changes of snow cover and sunlight. | <=>Solar variation Bristlecone pines
Calibration was difficult, however, for some trees (although not the bristlecones) began to act strangely in the late 20th century, thanks perhaps to acid rain and other pollution as well as global climate change. This "divergence problem" could be worked around by relying on earlier data, but the adjustments were tricky. The adjustments became a lightning-rod for critics who insisted that the tree experts were analyzing the data incorrectly (even, some exclaimed, dishonestly). Fortunately there were other climate proxies, and scientists worked to derive past temperatures entirely without the use of tree rings. Ingenious analysis of coral reefs, fossil pollen, layers in stalactites, and so forth engaged experts from a variety of obscure specialties. Unexpected sources of error turned up here too. But years of analysis by different and often rival groups produced increasingly reliable numbers, all pretty much in agreement with one another and with tree rings. The trees proved useful as a check, and for exploring climate change in times and places where nothing else was available.(44a) |
A particularly tellilng independent proxy was a uniquely straightforward method, the measurement of old temperatures directly in boreholes. Data from various locations in Alaska, published in 1986, showed that the top 100 meters of permafrost was anomalously warm compared with deeper layers. The only possible cause was a rise of average Arctic air temperature by a few degrees since the last century, with the heat gradually seeping down into the earth.(45) In a burst of enthusiasm during the 1990s, scientists took the temperature of hundreds of deep boreholes in soil and rock layers around the planet. The averages gave a clear signal of a global warming accelerating in the 20th century. A still more important example of the far-flung efforts was a series of heroic expeditions that labored high into the thin air of the Andes and even Tibet, hauling drill rigs onto tropical ice caps. The hard-won data showed again that the warming in the last few decades exceeded anything seen for several thousand years. The ice caps themselves, which had endured since the last ice age, were melting away faster than the scientists could measure them.(46) | <=>Rapid change =>Sea rise & ice
By 2005 glaciologists had gathered enough evidence to report that everywhere from Argentina to New Guinea, the majority of mountain glaciers and icecaps were in retreat. As the ice melted back it was revealing mummies that had been frozen for thousands of years. Striking changes in the Alps, in Glacier National Park in the United States, and on Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa made a particularly strong impression on the public. But every glacier has its own personality, depending as much on variations in snowfall as on temperature. What impressed scientists were studies of the total mass of ice, which revealed a net loss since the 1970s in every region of the globe.(47) Loss of glaciers, ice caps and Arctic sea ice is a particularly visible (and worrying) demonstration of global warming. See the separate essay on Ice Sheets and Rising Seas. | Shrinking Glacier 1875/2004 <=Sea rise & ice
The Hockey Stick and Beyond TOP OF PAGE |
A group headed by Michael Mann combined a variety of measures to construct a graph of estimated temperatures averaged over the Northern Hemisphere over the past ten centuries. An apparent downward trend from a "Medieval Warm Period," roughly as warm as the 1950s, into the cooler "Little Ice Age" gave way to a steep rise in the 20th century. The movement from warm to cool and back toward warm had been debated by Lamb and other historians and climatologists since the 1920s; what was new and startling was the abrupt climb since the 1950s.(47a) A gray shaded area showed the range of incomplete data, but most attention went to a dark solid line showing temperatures averaged over each half-century or so. The temperatures of the 1990s soared to the top of the chart. Apparently 1998 had been not just the warmest year of the century, but of the millennium. The graph (shown below) was widely reprinted and made a strong impression. It was dubbed the "hockey stick" because it displayed a flat thousand-year trend followed by a sharp upward turn. | Michael Mann photo: Greg Rico
The "hockey stick" graph was prominently featured in a report the IPCC issued in 2001. The image immediately became a powerful tool for people who were trying to raise public awareness of global warming — to the regret of some seasoned climate experts who recognized that, like all science at the point of publication, the graph was preliminary and uncertain. The dedicated minority who denied that there was any global warming problem promptly attacked the calculations. For example, in 2003 a few scientists argued that the Earth had been as warm a thousand years ago as in the late 20th century.(48*) |
Other climatologists took up the question, looking at data for the entire world. They found a scattering of warm and cold periods in different places at different times, overall below the level of the recent general warming. It turned out that the supposed Medieval Warm Period had caught the eye of historical climatologists because it was prominent in well-studied parts of the Northern Hemisphere. (Greenland had been particularly warm. The Arctic in general, however, had been mostly cool until the steep rise of the late 20th century.) |
Other critics claimed that the recent warming was simply a "recovery" from the Little Ice Age. Studies inspired by the controversy found that the planet had indeed been cooler on average a few centuries ago (probably because of a lull in the Sun's activity along with an unusual spate of volcanic eruptions). But this too was not a striking global phenomenon like the recent warming. Northern continental areas and a few southern regions had been particularly cold, but the Southern Pacific Ocean, tropical Eurasia, and some other areas had been as warm as at present. (48a*) | <=>Solar variation
Regardless of what had happened in past centuries, the warming since then was now as certain a fact as anything in science. A few critics continued to seek confirmation of their denial of the warming in data on air temperatures from weather stations and satellites. In particular, former TV weatherman Anthony Watts established a popular website that mobilized people to report continental U.S. weather stations that were poorly located, for example near the exhaust of air conditioners. A study by members of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center separately analyzed the sites that Watts's volunteers identified as faulty, comparing them with the acknowledged good sites. They found that any bias introduced by poor siting had been mostly compensated for by the data reduction, which was designed precisely to remove biases by comparisons over regions and time. But if the raw data only were considered, the poor sites tended to show not a lesser warming than NOAA had reported (as Watts had assumed) but a greater warming.(49) |
In any case geophysicists noted that the real buildup of heat energy was easily seen, less in the thin and variable atmosphere than in the masses of solid earth sampled by boreholes. Still more unequivocal, the upper layers of water in ocean basins — which were gradually absorbing most of the heat energy — showed an increasingly clear pattern of recent warming. (See above and see graph below). The pattern roughly matched what computer modellers had expected would result from the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the air, but not warming from any other cause. (Submarine volcanoes, for example, would warm from the bottom, but the oceans were warming from the top down.) Deniers found a chance to question this too, when a paper was published in 2006 reporting that the oceans had cooled in the past few years. However, the authors soon announced that they had made an embarrassing mistake in the way theyhad compared the data from older and newer instruments. It was just another example of the difficulties of interpreting science amid an uproar of politicized controversy.(49a) | <=Models (GCMs =>Public opinion
Talk radio callers and right-leaning columnists continued to exclaim about one or another unusually cold winter in this or that locality. They pointed out that some regions showed no warming at all, notably the massive Antarctic ice sheet. This was no surprise, but an effect predicted as far back as 1981 by Stephen Schneider and a collaborator. Noting that the Southern Hemisphere was mostly ocean, which would tend to take up heat and delay the rise of atmospheric temperature in the region, they had warned that people "may still be misled... in the decade A.D. 2000-2010" by cool weather there. (It turned out, however, that this and later computer studies were too conservative: in the 2000s, regions around Antarctica began to show a bit of warming and significant loss of ice.) |
As the world-ocean took up heat it delayed the rise of atmospheric temperature for decades. A further time-lag was introduced by the sluggish response of forests and tundra as they adjusted to the changing climate. The system had so much inertia that once the world had warmed to a given level, we were already committed to substantially more warming. Scientists understood this by the end of the 20th century, but most policy-makers had yet to grasp the implications — another dangerous time-lag.(50) | <=CO2 greenhouse
Around 2008 the deniers began to publicize a new claim: the world had supposedly gotten no warmer in the decade since 1998. Indeed that had been an extraordinarily warm year, for a "super El Niño" event, the strongest of the century, had pumped some extra heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. No year since had been noticeably hotter (although 2005, 2008 and 2010 roughly matched it). While the claim excited comment among internet bloggers and a few politicians, the actual scientific literature gave scant attention to such short-term fluctuations, in this case probably caused by a sharp decline in solar activity.(50a) Anyone who looked at the ten-year average of air temperatures near the surface — which was what the weather statistics measured — would see that the decade 1999-2008 was substantially hotter than the decade before, which was in turn hotter than the preceding decade, and so forth back to the 1970s. Indeed all of the ten warmest years on record had come since 1997. | =>Public opinion
The natural variability of climate could make for a still longer pause in surface warming, like the two decades of fluctuations in the mid-20th century. If that happened again it would give comfort only to those who ignored all the other data on changes in the climate system.In particular, there were now reliable measures of the upper ocean layers. And through the 2000s, as in earlier decades, the heat content of the oceans rose steadily.(51) The people who publicly denied there was any need to worry about global warming were increasingly relying on a narrow, sometimes disingenous, selection of evidence while ignoring all the rest. |
If you compared the climbing curve of late 20th-century temperatures with the curves produced by computer models that calculated the effects of the rise of greenhouse gases (with adjustments for volcanic eruptions, solar variations and aerosol pollution), the match was close indeed. Temperatures were soaring much as scientists had been predicting, with increasing confidence, for half a century. Few could believe any longer that this was mere coincidence. By now the world’s community of experts had finally agreed, with little dissent, that it was highly likely that the strong global warming seen since the 1970s was in large part the work of humanity. In a 2007 consensus report, the IPCC went on to point to greenhouse warming as a likely cause of the more frequent and more intense summer heat waves and droughts, warmer winters, earlier springs, dwindling glaciers, and other changes in weather patterns that were increasingly seen to be underway... as predicted.(52) | =>Models (GCMs) = Milestone =>Solar variation =>Rapid change =>International
The heat content of the upper layers of the world's oceans is the most comprehensive measure of changes in the temperature of the planet (the oceans contain far more of any new heat added than the thin atmosphere). As seen in hundreds of thousands of measurement analyzed by three independent groups, it began a steady rise in the 1970s. That was just when greenhouse gas levels reached a level high enough to be important: Levitus et al., Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L07608. Copyright © 2009 American Geophysical Union, reproduced by permission Back to earlier text. The influential 1999 "hockey stick" reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past 1000 years (relative to the average of 1961-90); the dark line shows mean values and the gray band, often overlooked, shows the range of uncertainty: Below: a more recent and more accurate reconstruction for the past 1300 years. Northern Hemisphere temperature data from ten 21st-century studies of tree rings and a variety of other proxies are combined, with darker colors showing areas of greater agreement. The black line 1850-2000 shows temperatures recorded by thermometers. The "Little Ice Age" of early modern times is evident in nearly all studies. A "Medieval Warm Period" around 1000 AD is found in some studies but not others. In the less complete data (not shown) for the Southern Hemisphere, the Little Ice age is apparent but not a Medieval Warm Period. Upper graph: Mann et al. (1999), p. 761, copyright © 1999 American Geophysical Union, reproduced by permission. Lower: IPCC (2007b) p. 467. A graph showing a dozen studies separately is here. The 1999 graph shows "proxy" temperatures (for example from tree rings) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere, plus measured temperatures for the past century. The dark solid line shows temperatures averaged over each half-century or so, and the shaded area gives the range of possible averages. An apparent downward trend since medieval times (thought to possibly reflect a natural drift toward the next ice age) is interrupted by a steep recent rise. In 2004 some teams pointed out that the huge gaps and uncertainties in the pre-19th century data, and the methods used to average the data, could conceal changes of temperature in the past that might have been as large and abrupt as anything seen in modern times. Indeed the way the popular press often displayed the "hockey stick" graphic, as a single, stout, level line hooking up at the end, gave a misleading impression of past stability. A main purpose of the original publication had been to establish the limits of uncertainty, but even if publications did show the broad gray band of shading, it was easy to overlook that it might conceal big climate shifts. The National Academy of Sciences responded to the controversy by asking a panel to review all the evidence. In 2006 the panel announced that while some mistakes had been made (as usually happens in frontier science), the main original conclusions held. The world had indeed grown warmer since the 1980s in a way that was without precedent, at least in the past four centuries for which a reliable record could be reconstructed. While earlier data were much less reliable, the panel found it "plausible" that the world was now hotter than at any time in the past millennium. For yet more on the controversy see note 48*. Back to earlier text RELATED: Home The Public and Climate The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect Changing Sun, Changing Climate
NOTES
1. Callendar (1961), p. 1. BACK 2. One early notice was Brooks (1922). BACK 3. Kincer (1934), p. 62; "wie bei allen anderen Klimaschwankugen": Scherhag (1937), p. 263; similarly, "no evidence" of a permanent shift: George E. McEwen of Scripps, Science Newsletter (1940). BACK 4. Callendar (1938). Early attempt: Köppen (1873). On the "World Weather Records" see Le Treut et al. (2007), p. 101-102. BACK 5. Landsberg (1946), pp. 297-98. BACK 6. Abarbanel and McCluskey (1950), p. 23, see New York Times, May 30, 1947 and August 7, 1952. BACK 7. Brooks (1949), p. 117. BACK 8. Willett (1949), p. 50. BACK 9. In particular, Lysgaard (1950); this was cited by several authors in Shapley (1953); see also Willett (1950); on the shift of views, see Lamb (1966), 171-72, also ix, 1-2. BACK 10. Landsberg (1958); his analysis found an average 0.8°F rise, more around the Great Lakes. Landsberg (1960). BACK 11. Ahlmann (1952). BACK 12. Crary et al. (1955). BACK 13. Lamb (1959), in Changing Climate (1966) p. 19. BACK 14. Mitchell was spurred by some Scandinavian studies showing a leveling off in the 1950s — the Arctic was usually where trends showed up first. Mitchell (1961); see also Mitchell (1963), "rhythm" p. 180. In his independent calculation, Callendar (1961) found chiefly a temperature rise in the Arctic. For another and similar temperature curve, computed by the Main Geophysical Observatory in Leningrad (and attributed to volcanoes), see Budyko (1969), p. 612. An expert called the works of Mitchell, Callendar (1961) and Budyko "the first reasonably reliable estimates of large scale average temperatures," Wigley et al. (1986), p. 278.One other attempt was Willett (1950). BACK 15. Mitchell (1961), pp. 249, 247. BACK 16. For the North Atlantic Oscillation, see Fagan (2000), esp. pp. 207-08. BACK 17. At a 1972 meeting in Stockholm, for example, there was an impasse between "the climate 'coolers' and the climate "warmers'," Kellogg (1987), pp. 122-23. Callendar: Lamb (1997), p. 218. BACK 18. Landsberg (1967); quote: Landsberg (1970), p. 1273; on all this, see Mitchell (1991). BACK 19. Brief reviews of observations back to the 19th century include Mitchell (1953); Landsberg (1955); Landsberg (1970). BACK 20. Budyko (1962); others such as Wilson and Matthews (1971) pp. 60, 166-68 agreed the effect could be serious. BACK 21. e.g., Dronia (1967), removing urban heat effects found no net warming since the 19th century. BACK 22. Mitchell (1953); already in 1938 Callendar adjusted for the effect, while admitting that "this is a matter which is open to controversy." Callendar (1938), p. 235. Additionally, the common practice during the 1950s of moving weather stations from downtown locations to airports, outside the "heat island," would give a spurious impression of cooling, but Mitchell and others allowed for that too in their calculations. BACK 23. Lamb (1977), pp. 709-10. BACK 24. Johnsen et al. (1970); Lamb (1977), pp. 529, 549. BACK 25. Emiliani (1966). BACK 26. Hays et al. (1976). BACK 27. Mitchell (1972), p. 445; GARP (1975), pp. 37, 43; they cite a Manabe computer model of 1971 and Mitchell (1973). BACK 28. He also suspected the natural cycle was scheduled to reverse within decades, adding to the rise. Broecker (1975). BACK 29. Salinger and Gunn (1975). BACK 30. Damon and Kunen (1976); a brief argument on turbidity reducing high-latitude temperatures is in Bryson (1973), p. 9; see also Damon and Kunen (1978). A confirmation: Hansen et al. (1981). BACK 31. Lamb (1977), p. 698n1, citing a 1976 World Meteorological Organization statement (noted here). BACK 31a. National Defense University (1978); also published in Council on Environmental Quality (1980), ch. 17. BACK 31b. Edwards (2010); quote: Steurer (2007). BACK 32. Hansen et al. (1981), "misconception" p. 961, and Hansen, interview by Weart, Oct. and Nov. 2000, AIP. BACK 32a. For summary and references see Hegerl et al. (2006), p. 673. BACK 33. Specifically, Hansen's group predicted the effect would rise above the two-sigma level in the 1990s. Hansen et al. (1981), "emerge" p. 957; another scientist who compared temperature trends with a combination of CO2, emissions from volcanic eruptions, and supposed solar cycles, likewise got a good match, and used the cycles to predict that greenhouse warming would swamp other influences after about 2000. Gilliland (1982); Madden and Ramanathan (1980) studied the climate "noise" in comparison with warming predicted by various computer models and concluded the effect "should be detectable anytime from the present to about the year 2000," p. 767. Ocean calculations: Hoffert et al. (1980); Hansen et al. (1984). Already in 1956, both Gilbert Plass and Roger Revelle had expected an effect, if any existed, would be apparent by the end of the century. And in 1959 Bert Bolin said serious effects might be visible around then (see this note). On the other hand, in 1983 the editor of Nature, not a climate expert but no critic of greenhouse arguments, thought the effect would "become apparent only halfway through the next century" if not later, Maddox (1983). BACK 34. Jones et al. (1982); the news for 1981 was added in proof in mid-December. For funding they thank the U.S. Dept. of Energy and Office of Naval Research. On American help with data, see e-mail interview of Raymond S. Bradley by Ted Feldman, 2000, copy at AIP. BACK 35. Jones et al. (1986a); Jones et al. (1986b); a review is Wigley et al. (1986). See recollections of Raymond Bradley on the AGU history site. Later analysis revealed that the dip had been less severe than their numbers showed, for a change in the way ocean temperatures were measured after 1945 had artificially lowered some numbers: Thompson et al. (2008). BACK 36. Hansen and Lebedeff (1987). BACK 36a. Edwards (2010). BACK 37. Schneider (1992), p. 26; Other examples: MacCracken and Luther (1985); Ramanathan (1988). BACK 38. There was strong U.S. warming 1976-2000, but only in the winter, not the summer warming that would have been noticeable. See IPCC (2001), p. 117; Hansen et al. (2001). BACK 39. Study of the U.S., the only place where sufficiently good records were available, showed a large urban bias which, when removed, left a mild warming from 1900 to the 1930s. Karl and Jones (1989); Jones et al. (1990); irrigation and other changes in land use also contribute, making for a large total effect, according to Kalnay and Cai (2003). For a review of urbanization effects see Parker (2010). Another debate was over whether a reported sea-surface temperature rise in the 1980s was due to temporary distortions such as an El Niño event rather than the greenhouse effect, Reynolds et al. (1989); Robock and Strong (1989). BACK 40. Spencer and Christy (1990); Spencer and Christy (1992); Christy et al. (1997) with reply by K.E. Trenberth and J.W. Hurrell gives an idea of the technical problems of analysis; Christy et al. (1998); on Christy see Royte (2001); criticism: Wentz and Schabel (1998); Kerr (1998); for counter-arguments Singer (1999). BACK 41. National Academy of Sciences (2000); see also Santer et al. (2000); more recently, Santer et al. (2002); "claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties," suggested Santer et al. (2003). The why-didn't-I-think-of-that analysis by Fu et al. (2004) showed that the microwave wavelengths supposed to measure the mid-level troposphere had been contaminated by a contribution from the higher stratosphere, which was rapidly cooling (as predicted by models). Quote: John Wallace, Schiermeier (2004b); see also Kerr (2004b). The apparent lack of warming in balloon (radiosonde) data was "an artifact of systematic reductions over time in the uncorrected error due to daytime solar heating of the instrument," Sherwood et al. (2005). For fuller discussion and references see Edwards (2010), pp. 413-18. BACK 42. Buds: Menzel and Fabian (1999); a more general biological indicator was the earlier arrival of the seasonal dip in CO2 as plants took up carbon: Keeling et al. (1996); snow and general discussion: Easterling et al. (2000); oceans: Levitus et al. (2000); oceans got some 30 times as much added heat as the atmosphere: Levitus et al. (2001), updated and improved by Levitus et al. (2005); Hansen et al. (2005) with better models and data found a particularly striking match between greenhouse effect computer model estimates and observed ocean basin warming. For more recent data see von Schuckmann et al. (2009). BACK 42a. Karl et al. (1991); Karl et al. (1993). BACK 43. Santer et al. (1995) , online here; Santer et al. (1996), quote p. 39. For the subsequent controversy see Stevens (1999), ch. 13; Oreskes and Conway (2010), p. 199. BACK 43a. Allen et al. (2006). BACK 43b. Le Roy Ladurie (1967); Lamb (1972-77); Fagan (2000). BACK 44. Thompson et al. (2008). BACK 44a. For pioneers in tree rings see Fritts (1976, rev. ed. 2001); for coral, Weber and Woodhead (1972). An overview is Le Treut et al. (2007), p. 102. BACK 45. Lachenbruch and Marshall (1986). BACK 46. Reviews of boreholes: Pollack and Chapman (1993); Pollack et al. (1998); Pollack and Huang (2000); Pollack and Smerdon (2004). Review of tropical ice: Thompson et al. (1993), see also Thompson et al. (1995) and Krajick (2002). BACK 47. Oerlemans (2005) reviews long-term retreat to 1990. For the recent period see IPCC (2007b), pp. 358-59, drawn from Kaser et al. (2006). On Kilimanjaro see this note in essay on public opinion. BACK 47a. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were popularized by Brooks (1922) and Lamb, e.g., Lamb (1995), whose data and attention inevitably focussed on the North Atlantic region. BACK 48. For a historical overview see Monastersky (2006) and Pearce (2010), 13ff and ch. 8. The first serious attack published in a peer-reviewed, albeit obscure, journal (Climate Research) was Soon and Baliunas (2003). Asked to respond, Mann and other top climate experts gave strong reasons for regarding the criticism as groundless, indeed based on grossly improper statistical methods, Mann et al. (2003). The chief editor of Climate Research and four other editors resigned, saying the peer-review process had been faulty, see Monastersky (2003). McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) in another obscure journal claimed to have been unable to replicate the results from the data; this was comprehensively refuted by Wahl and Ammann (2007). The sloping dashed line in the figure, indicating slight cooling over the past millennium, did rely on data that were sparse and difficult to analyze. See Mann et al. (2004), Jones and Mann (2004). The possibility of abrupt shifts concealed in the uncertainty band was pointed out by von Storch et al. (2004), but their conclusion that the graph was faulty overall was refuted by Wahl et al. (2006). The likelihood that the smoothing process concealed large temperature shifts was asserted by Moberg et al. (2005), disputed by Mann et al. (2005). Returning to the fray, McIntyre and McKitrick (2005) found a technical statistical error but it was too minor to affect the main conclusions, as shown by Wahl et al. (2006), and was corrected in Mann et al. (2007); see also Huybers (2005). For lucid explanations of this and other controversies use the search function on the professionally-run blog realclimate.org. Jones and Mann (2004) argued that better data and other lines of research confirmed, at a minimum, the unprecedented nature of the modern rise. Mann et al. (2008) narrowed the band of uncertainty with detailed reconstructions, finding a Northern Hemisphere medieval warm period, but with post-1980s temperatures clearly higher even if they excluded data from tree rings (the main point where critics had attacked). See also note 48a, below. "Past climate variations": Keith Briffa quoted by Fred Pearce in New Scientist, Feb. 18, 2006, p. 10. "Plausible": National Research Council (2006). BACK 48a. The most comprehensive survey to date is Mann et al. (2009). Volcanoes and Little Ice Age: Free and Robock (1999); Crowley (2000). Evidence that warm episodes were regional and "not strongly synchronous" was first assembled by Hughes and Diaz (1994). On what is now called the Medieval Climate Anomaly see for example Lund et al. (2006). "Coral data for the tropical Pacific... suggest a 'Medieval Cool Period'," according to Mann et al. (2006). An analysis of lake sediments and other proxies in the Arctic found something closely resembling the original hockey stick, with "four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000," Kaufman et al. (2009). BACK 49. Menne (2010). BACK 49a. Lyman et al (2006); Willis et al. (2007). BACK 50. Schneider and Thompson (1981), quote p. 3145. Bryan et al. (1988) found that in Antarctica, “there is no warming at the sea surface, and even a slight cooling over the 50-year duration of the experiment.” due to an increase of mixing of deeper waters in Circumpolar Ocean. This was further confirmed with a much better model, Manabe et al. (1991). Current observations of Antarctic sea ice cover etc. are in accord with current models: IPCC (2007b), pp. 616-17, see also Zhang (2007) for sea ice. For the history see Manabe and Stouffer (2007), pp. 386, 401. Bolin (2007) p. 158 remarks on the lag in temperature and policy. BACK 50a. Lean and Rind (2009). BACK 51. Ocean warming: von Schuckmann et al. (2009). BACK 52. IPCC (2001), p. 6. The 2007 report saw even more evidence that it was "highly likely" that human activity was the main cause of warming. IPCC (2007b), section TS.4. BACK copyright © 2003-2011 Spencer Weart & American Institute of Physics